UNCTAD calculations, based on United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2017a. d’Ivoire. More diversified economies such as Kenya attract labour from other regions. Since the 1980s, Libya has been a major destination for migrants from outside Africa, notably from Indonesia and Iraq, with demand in its oil industry fuelling economic migration. Since 2010, Libya has become a major transit country for migrants heading to Europe, due in large part to its strategic location on the Mediterranean Sea and as a destination for migrants from sub-Saharan Africa. Immigration has played different roles in countries. The countries in Africa that recorded the highest (exceeding 10 per cent) and lowest (0.5 per cent or lower) shares of international migrant stocks in total population in 1990 and 2017 are shown in table 7. Djibouti and Côte d’Ivoire recorded the highest shares of migrants in total population in 1990.

U N I T E D N AT I O N S C O N F E R E N C E O N T R A D E A N D D E V E L O P M E N T ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA REPORT 2018 Migration for Structural Transformation CHAPTER 2 Patterns and trends of migration CHAPTER 2 Patterns and trends of migration This chapter examines migration patterns and trends in Africa over the last 27 years, highlighting their evolution and configurations within and across regions on the continent. The first section examines migration patterns and trends in Africa in 1990–2017 at the interregional and continental levels. The second section provides an overview of regulatory frameworks that have shaped mobility on the continent. The last three sections examine migration patterns in terms of duration of stay, irregular migration and the gender component of migration. INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION IN AFRICA IN 2017 53% of Africa’s international migrants resided on the continent 25 15 million million 2000 International migration grew on average at 2.8% per year 2017 Northern Africa 4 out of 5 international migrants residing in Eastern, Middle and Western Africa were from the same African region Western Africa 49% of international migrants residing in Northern Africa were from the same region Middle Africa Eastern Africa 47% Southern Africa of international migrants were women Average age of an international migrant: 31 years old Top destinations for international migrants South Africa Côte d’Ivoire Migration hubs: Abidjan, Johannesburg, Nairobi Migration for Structural Transformation 2.1 Patterns of migration: Stylized facts International migration in Africa expressed as a share of total population has been declining since 1990. It declined to levels below 2 per cent in 2017, which is lower than the global average of 3.4 per cent (figure 4). In 2000–2017, the number of international migrants in Africa increased from 15 million to 25 million, or by 67 per cent, at an average of 2.8 per cent per year. As a result, the percentage of all international migrants residing in Africa increased from 9 per cent in 2000 to 10 per cent of the global total in 2017 (table 3). Figure 4 30 3.0 25 2.5 20 2.0 15 1.5 10 1.0 5 0.5 0 Percentage Millions Africa: International migrant stock as share of total population 0.0 1990 2000 International migrant stock 2010 2017 As share of total population Source: UNCTAD calculations, based on United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2017a. In relation to the population of Africa, the incidence of emigration, or the stock of its emigrants in the continent’s total population, is among the lowest in the world, owing to Africa’s high population growth rate. Africa also has the lowest median age of migrants in the world, at 31 years, and a faster rate of growth in its migrant stock than the global average (table 3), only Asia has a faster rate of growth. In 2000 and 2017, the number of women migrants in Africa increased, yet as a share of total international migrants in Africa, remained stable at 47 per cent (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2017a). More women appear to be moving 41 Economic Development in Africa Report 2018 Table 3 International migrant stock INTERNATIONAL MIGRANT STOCK AT MIDYEAR DESTINATION 2000 2017 WOMEN INTERNATIONAL SHARE OF TOTAL MIGRANTS MIGRANT STOCK INTERNATIONAL AS SHARE OF AS SHARE OF MIGRANTS INTERNATIONAL TOTAL POPULATION (PERCENTAGE) MIGRANT STOCK (PERCENTAGE) (PERCENTAGE) ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE OF MIGRANT STOCK MEDIAN AGE OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS (YEARS) 2000 2017 2000 2017 2000 2017 2000– 2005 2015– 2017 2000 2017 World 172 604 257 257 715 425 2.8 3.4 100 100 49 48 2.0 2.0 38 39 Africa 14 800 306 24 650 223 1.8 2.0 9 10 47 47 0.9 2.5 28 31 Eastern Africa 4 844 795 7 591 799 1.9 1.8 3 3 49 50 -0.4 4.6 29 30 Middle Africa 1 756 687 3 539 697 1.8 2.2 1 1 49 48 1.9 1.5 27 29 Northern Africa 1 885 650 2 410 056 1.1 1.0 1 1 44 42 -1.7 1.2 28 32 Southern Africa 1 222 314 4 338 205 2.3 6.7 1 2 41 45 3.3 2.7 35 34 Western Africa 5 090 860 6 770 466 2.2 1.8 3 3 47 47 2.0 1.2 25 30 Sub-Saharan Africa 13 716 539 22 975 988 2.0 2.2 8 9 47 48 0.8 2.8 27 31 Source: UNCTAD calculations, based on United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2017a. due, in part, to population ageing and greater job opportunities in the North and in Eastern Asia and the Middle East in the health sector and the care and domestic service sector. There is also rising demand for care and domestic services in Africa, which is increasingly influencing patterns of women’s migration both within and outside the continent (see section 2.5). 2.1.1 Patterns from, within and to Africa The evolution of migration from, within and to Africa is shown in figure 5. Migration under all three categories increased in 1990–2017. In 2017, each stock exceeded the value in 2000, highlighting the growth in African migration in absolute terms. Three distinct trends may be observed. First, in 1990, African migration was predominantly intracontinental, although the distribution has changed over time. The stock of international migrants originating from Africa and living in Africa was the main stock in 2000, at 12.5 million, highlighting that migration was foremost an intra-African phenomenon. This stock grew consistently, and reached 19.4 million in 2017. Second, the stock of international migrants originating from Africa and living outside the continent was 6.9 million in 1990 and increased to 16.9 million in 2017. With the exception 42 Migration for Structural Transformation Figure 5 Stocks of international migrants from, within and to Africa 20 000 000 15 000 000 10 000 000 2.1.1 Patterns from, within and to Africa Migration from, within and to Africa increased during the period 2000 to 2017. 5 000 000 Figure 5 shows the evolution of stocks of international migrants in Africa, and the stocks of international migrants originating from Africa but living outside the continent. Migration of all three categories increased during the 1990 to 2017 period. 0 While each stock in 2017 exceeded the stock in 2000, highlighting the growth 1990 2000 2010 2017 in African migration in absolute terms, two distinct trends are observed. First, in 1990, African migration was Intra-African predominantly intra-continental although Extra-continental, from Africa Extra-continental, to Africa the distribution has changed over time. The stock of international migrants originatingcalculations, from Africa based and living in AfricaNations was theDepartment main stockof in Economic 2000, at 12.5 Source: UNCTAD on United and Social million; highlighting that migration was foremost an intra-African phenomenon. Affairs, 2017a. This stock grew consistently and reached 19.4 million in 2017. Intra-African migration: up from 12.5 million in 2000 to 19.4 million in 2017 Second, the stock of international migrants originating from Africa but living of the year 2010, 1990, have inbeen international migrants outside the since continent wasthere 6.9 million 1990more and increased rapidly to 16.9 of African origin that livedin within the continent than Africa,ofbut thesince margin narrowing. million 2017 (Figure 5). Hence, withoutside the exception 2010, 1990isthere have beenmigration more international migrantstoofAfrica Africanexperienced origin that live within the Extra-continental and migration stronger growth than continent than outside Africa, but the margin is narrowing. Extra-continental intracontinental migration in 1990–2017. The propensity to migrate outside the continent migration and migration to Africa experienced stronger growth than intra-conis significantly higher in Northern Africa than in propensity sub-Saharan Africa (table Of the total tinental migration during 1990-2017. The to migrate outside4).the 16.9 million stock isofsignificantly extra-continental 2017,than the in majority lived inAfrica Asia, Europe continent higher emigrants in NortherninAfrica Sub-Saharan (seeAmerica. Table 3). Within Of the 16.9 of the total stock of extra-continental African and North Asia,million almost all of Africa’s international migrants live in the emigrants in 2017, the majority lived in Europe, Asia and Northern America. Middle East, illustrating the importance of the region as a hub for the continent’s migrants. Within Asia, almost all of Africa’s international migrants lived in Western Asia/ the Gulf, illustrating the importance of the region as a hub for the continent’s migrants. Third, Table 3 shows that the stock of international migrants as a share of the population rose from 1.8 per cent in 2000 to 2.0 per cent in 2017 (or from 18 to 20 migrants per 1,000 population). The countries with the highest stock of 43 Economic Development in Africa Report 2018 Third, the stock of international migrants as a share of population rose from 1.8 per cent in 2000 to 2.0 per cent in 2017, or from 18 to 20 migrants per 1,000 people (see table 3). In 2017, the countries with the highest stock of international migrants as a share of total population were Equatorial Guinea (18 per cent), Gabon and Seychelles (14 per cent each) and Djibouti (12 per cent). 2.1.2 Emigration trends characterized by growth and regional diversity The stock of emigrants that stayed within Africa and those that moved outside the continent in 2017 are shown in table 4. Most international migration takes place within the continent. Around 53 per cent of emigrants reside within Africa and 47 per cent emigrate to extra-continental destinations. Table 4 Intra-African and extra-continental emigrant stocks by region of origin, 2017 ORIGIN TOTAL STOCK OF TOTAL STOCK EMIGRANTS LIVING OF EMIGRANTS WITHIN AFRICA STOCK OF EMIGRANTS LIVING WITHIN AFRICA AS SHARE OF TOTAL STOCK OF EMIGRANTS (PERCENTAGE) TOTAL STOCK OF EMIGRANTS LIVING OUTSIDE AFRICA STOCK OF EMIGRANTS LIVING OUTSIDE AFRICA AS SHARE OF TOTAL STOCK OF EMIGRANTS (PERCENTAGE) Total Africa 36 266 428 19 359 848 53.4 16 906 580 46.6 Eastern Africa 10 533 239 7 475 553 71.0 3 057 686 29.0 Middle Africa 4 099 426 3 229 786 78.8 869 640 21.2 Northern Africa 11 175 732 1 477 069 13.2 9 698 663 86.8 Southern Africa 1 586 875 821 006 51.7 765 869 48.3 Western Africa 8 871 156 6 356 434 71.7 2 514 722 28.3 Source: UNCTAD calculations, based on United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2017a. The main sending countries in Africa were Egypt (3.4 million) and Morocco (2.9 million), as shown in figure 6. Emigrants from Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Nigeria was primarily to extra-continental destinations. Emigrants from Somalia (1.9 million), Burkina Faso (1.4 million) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Mali were primarily to other countries on the continent. In Northern Africa, geographical proximity to Europe and the Middle East, as well as the subregion’s colonial ties and established networks, have influenced extra-continental migration and high levels of youth unemployment have been a key driver of recent movements from the subregion to Europe (table 5). In terms of intra-African emigration, political instability in Somalia and the Sudan, as well as conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, have been important drivers of emigration from these countries. Economic migration remains a key driver of mobility from Burkina Faso to Côte d’Ivoire. 44 Migration for Structural Transformation Figure 6 Countries with largest numbers of emigrants, 2017 (Millions) Egypt Morocco Somalia Sudan Algeria South Sudan Dem. Rep. of the Congo Burkina Faso Nigeria Mali 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Stock of emigrants living outside Africa Stock of emigrants living within Africa Total stock of emigrants Source: UNCTAD calculations, based on United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2017a. Table 5 Regional unemployment rate, total and among youth (Percentage) Eastern Africa Middle Africa Northern Africa Southern Africa Western Africa Eastern Africa Middle Africa Northern Africa Southern Africa Western Africa 2009 2010 2011 2012 TOTAL (15+) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 8.3 9.9 10.5 24.3 8.3 8.6 9.9 10.4 23.6 7.7 9.0 9.7 10.7 23.8 7.7 8.5 9.3 11.1 24.4 7.7 8.3 9.2 11.1 24.6 7.7 8.3 9.2 11.3 24.6 7.6 8.3 9.3 11.3 24.5 7.6 8.3 9.3 11.3 24.5 7.7 8.2 9.4 11.4 24.4 7.8 8.2 9.4 11.4 24.4 7.8 2009 2010 2011 2012 YOUTH (15–24) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 13.7 17.7 26.9 43.7 12.8 14.5 16.5 26.4 43.5 11.9 14.4 16.4 29.2 44.2 11.8 13.6 15.3 31.3 45.2 11.8 13.9 16.5 31.1 45.0 11.8 13.8 16.8 31.1 45.1 12.0 13.8 17.0 31.3 45.1 12.1 13.7 17.1 31.4 45.2 12.1 13.4 15.3 30.8 46.5 11.8 13.8 16.1 31.7 46.0 11.7 Source: UNCTAD calculations, based on International Labour Organization (ILO) ILOstat database modelled estimates, November 2016. Notes: The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed persons as a share of the labour force. Data for 2009–2016 are estimates and data for 2017–2018 are projections. 45 Economic Development in Africa Report 2018 2.1.3 Rising immigration levels In Africa, 78.5 per cent of all international immigrants were born in Africa (table 6). In other words, four of every five international migrants in Africa come from the continent. In contrast, with regard to subregions, around half the international migrants residing in Northern and Southern Africa were born on another continent. Africa recorded an increase in the stock of immigrants, including immigrants from outside and within the continent, from 12.4 million in 2000 to 19.3 million in 2017. Only 12 out of 54 countries in Africa experienced a decline in the stock of immigrants between 2000 and 2017. Table 6 Immigrant stocks by region of origin, 2017 DESTINATION STOCK OF IMMIGRANTS TOTAL STOCK TOTAL FROM WITHIN THE REGION OF IMMIGRANTS STOCK OF AS SHARE OF TOTAL STOCK FROM WITHIN THE IMMIGRANTS OF IMMIGRANTS REGION (PERCENTAGE) STOCK OF IMMIGRANTS FROM OUTSIDE THE REGION STOCK OF IMMIGRANTS FROM OUTSIDE THE REGION AS SHARE OF TOTAL STOCK OF IMMIGRANTS (PERCENTAGE) Total Africa 24 650 223 19 359 848 78.5 5 290 375 21.5 Eastern Africa 7 591 799 6 731 752 88.7 860 047 11.3 Middle Africa 3 539 697 2 976 597 84.1 563 100 15.9 Northern Africa 2 410 056 1 194 386 49.6 1 215 670 50.4 Southern Africa 4 338 205 2 419 803 55.8 1 918 402 44.2 Western Africa 6 770 466 6 037 310 89.2 733 156 10.8 Source: UNCTAD calculations, based on United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2017a. The absolute number of international migrant stocks reveals the main destinations of migrants in Africa (figure 7). In 2017, the main receiving countries were South Africa (4.0 million), Côte d’Ivoire (2.2 million) and Uganda, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Kenya (each exceeding 1.0 million, in descending order). The main receiving countries of intra-African international migrants were South Africa (2.2 million) and Côte d’Ivoire (2.1 million), highlighting their importance as migration hubs. Uganda, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Kenya (each exceeding 1 million, in descending order) were also major receiving countries of intra-African international migrants. South Africa and Libya have the highest stock of immigrants in Africa. However, if we return to immigration within the continent, in South Africa, demand for labour in the mining and construction sectors remains an important driver of migration. Demand for domestic work and informal trade have also emerged as significant drivers of migration. Agriculture remains an important driver of migration to Côte 46 Migration for Structural Transformation Figure 7 Countries with largest numbers of immigrants, 2017 (Millions) South Africa Côte d’Ivoire Uganda Nigeria Ethiopia Kenya Dem. Rep. of the Congo South Sudan Libya Sudan 0.0 0.5 1.0 Stock of immigrants from outside Africa 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Stock of immigrants from within Africa 3.5 4.0 4.5 Total stock of immigrants Source: UNCTAD calculations, based on United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2017a. d’Ivoire. More diversified economies such as Kenya attract labour from other regions. Since the 1980s, Libya has been a major destination for migrants from outside Africa, notably from Indonesia and Iraq, with demand in its oil industry fuelling economic migration. Since 2010, Libya has become a major transit country for migrants heading to Europe, due in large part to its strategic location on the Mediterranean Sea and as a destination for migrants from sub-Saharan Africa. Immigration has played different roles in countries. The countries in Africa that recorded the highest (exceeding 10 per cent) and lowest (0.5 per cent or lower) shares of international migrant stocks in total population in 1990 and 2017 are shown in table 7. Djibouti and Côte d’Ivoire recorded the highest shares of migrants in total population in 1990. In 2017, Equatorial Guinea recorded the highest share of migrants in total population, due largely to its offshore oil industry, which is driving migration to the country. The countries with the lowest shares of immigrants in both 1990 and 2017 were Egypt, Eritrea, Lesotho, Madagascar, Morocco and Tunisia. Political instability in Eritrea and Somalia likely contributes to the prevalent low levels of immigration. 47 Economic Development in Africa Report 2018 Table 7 Countries with lowest and highest immigration intensity: International migrant stock as share of total population (Percentage) 1990 < 0.5 2017 > 10 < 0.5 > 10 Madagascar 0.2 Djibouti 20.7 Madagascar 0.1 Equatorial Guinea 17.5 Morocco 0.2 Côte d’Ivoire 14.8 Morocco 0.3 Gabon 13.8 Angola 0.3 Gabon 13.4 Lesotho 0.3 Seychelles 13.6 Egypt 0.3 Gambia 12.9 Somalia 0.3 Libya 12.4 Mauritius 0.3 Malawi 11.9 Eritrea 0.3 Djibouti 12.1 Eritrea 0.4 Libya 10.3 Egypt 0.5 Tunisia 0.5 Tunisia 0.5 Nigeria 0.5 Lesotho 0.5 Source: UNCTAD calculations, based on United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2017a. 2.1.4 Key migration corridors The above data and analysis highlights the main migration corridors within and from Africa. The top intra-African corridors in 2017 were Burkina Faso–Côte d’Ivoire (1.3 million), South Sudan–Uganda (0.9 million), Mozambique–South Africa (0.7 million), the Sudan–South Sudan (0.5 million) and Côte d’Ivoire–Burkina Faso (0.5 million), as shown in figures 8 and 9. The Côte d’Ivoire–Burkina Faso corridor serves as an important link for commercial agriculture and informal trade (International Centre for Migration Policy Development and IOM, 2015). Other corridors in which the stock of international migrants exceeds 200,000 include the Sudan–South Sudan (563,000), Somalia–Kenya (485,000) and Somalia–Ethiopia (467,000), with political instability and conflict in Eastern Africa driving forced migration in the region (International Centre for Migration Policy Development and IOM, 2015). The Mali–Côte d’Ivoire corridor (359,000; see figure 8) links migrants from Western Africa to resource-rich coastal countries, with demand in mineral extraction and commercial agriculture in Côte d’Ivoire fuelling migration. The Mozambique–South Africa (675,480) and Lesotho–South Africa (312,000) corridors are important for linking migrants to farms and mines and, for Lesotho, to domestic work in Johannesburg, South Africa (Crush et al, 2017). Other important corridors include Benin–Nigeria (362,000), the Sudan–Chad (344,000) and Burundi–United Republic of Tanzania (208,000). The 48 Migration for Structural Transformation Figure 8 Stocks in top 15 intra-African migration corridors, 2017 (Thousands) Burkina Faso to C …
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