Formulate ideas for future policies the U.S., China, and regional allies should pursue and justify your thinking. ● Coherently articulate arguments related to the course content. ● Write analytically sound and persuasive briefing papers. COURSE OF STUDY WEEK 1 – Wednesday, January 27, 2021 INTRODUCTION Description: In our first session, we will talk in more detail about how we will be approaching the course. We will establish norms for the class and get to know each other, building the class’s comfort with each other and their ability to tackle tough subjects civilly. We’ll look at how debating works.

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COURSE DESCRIPTION The emerging competition between a rising China and an evolving United States is one of the most significant factors reshaping world order in the twenty-first century, with this dynamic particularly germane in Spring 2021 as a new U.S. administration sets its course. Many argue that the growth of Chinese economic & military power and cultural & political influence threatens to set off a new “cold war”. This is especially so given that there are questions about the commitment to the region of the United States, traditionally Asia’s regional balancer and security provider– and indeed, of U.S. global intentions, abilities, and power. Much of the U.S.-China competition is playing out in Asia: a region of high economic dynamism, but also with multiple conflict zones, such as the Korean Peninsula, South China Sea, and the India-China border. At the same time, it’s important to recognize that Asia’s security is conditioned by economic interdependence, multilateral institutions, long-standing traditions, and shared norms—all of which provide a certain cushion against, and longer horizon for considering, great power rivalry. Against this backdrop, this course examines the past, present, and possible futures of U.S.-China relations. We will cover multiple dimensions, including diplomacy, information (intelligence as well as the “soft power” tools of influence), and military and economic power—aka DIME. Given heightened attention to China policy at the start of the Biden Administration, much of the course will develop contemporaneously. And, given Ambassador Campbell’s background as a diplomat and teacher of national security strategy, the course will take a practitioner’s approach, emphasizing analysis and real-world application. We will run structured debates, of increasing complexity, as a way to ensure all-student engagement with the material and to keep the virtual environment stimulating. Students will balance this attention to real-time developments by grounding their study in the deeper question of the history of the U.S.-China relationship. To do this, students will choose from a list of fiction and nonfiction books one on which they will focus. The course also will use Professor Graham Allison’s Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydide’s Trap? as a foundational text. Note: Given these dynamic times and significant attention to the topic, foundational readings will be supplemented by current academic articles, recorded think tank discussions, and news stories. Therefore, the syllabus will remain a living document. Students also will choose a reputable website to monitor weekly and report upon in class. COURSE LEARNING OUTCOMES By the end of the semester, students will be able to: ● Recall facts and basic concepts important to the study of China and the broader Asian region. amended version, rev 4 – April 7, 2021 ● Explain how the policies of the United States and China towards each other have evolved over the past 16 years – a period which saw four U.S. administrations and two Chinese paramount leaders. ● Apply information about the past and present U.S.-China relationship to draw connections across different dimensions, developing a sophisticated analysis of the situation in Spring 2021. ● Formulate ideas for future policies the U.S., China, and regional allies should pursue and justify your thinking. ● Coherently articulate arguments related to the course content. ● Write analytically sound and persuasive briefing papers. COURSE OF STUDY WEEK 1 – Wednesday, January 27, 2021 INTRODUCTION Description: In our first session, we will talk in more detail about how we will be approaching the course. We will establish norms for the class and get to know each other, building the class’s comfort with each other and their ability to tackle tough subjects civilly. We’ll look at how debating works. And I’ll explain how we will be using the five “in-depth books” (listed below): * Lost in Translation: A novel by Nicole Mones * Age of Ambition: Chasing Fortune, Truth and Faith in the New China by Evan Osnos * Life and Death are Wearing Me Out by Mo Yan * The Last Boat Out of Shanghai by Helen Zia * The Good Earth by Pearl Buck (maybe – to discuss) Reading: -Scott Kennedy “A Complex Inheritance: Transitioning to a New Approach on China,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) January 19, 2021. A key point to look for in the article is how the outgoing administration “handcuffed” (my word not his) the incoming. Pay attention to that and come to class prepared to talk about the reality that no administration ever starts with a clean slate. What CAN and SHOULD the new administration do? WEEK 2 – Wednesday, February 3, 2021 ACTS ONE “SETTING THE TABLE” AND ACT TWO “TAKING CENTER STAGE” Description: We will look at the main tenets of the Trump Administration’s China policy and how key players of the (then-incoming) Biden administration framed the issues. This week has a heavy reading list, to frame issues we will discuss throughout the semester. Readings: Act One – “Setting the Table” 1. Josh Rogin, “Biden is rebranding but not reinventing Trump’s China policy,” The Washington Post, Opinion, November 26, 20202. 2. Jake Sullivan and Kurt Campbell, “Competition without Catastrophe: How America Can Both Challenge and Coexist with China,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2019. 3. Hal Brands and Jake Sullivan, “The Big Think: China Has Two Paths to Global Domination,” Foreign Policy, May 22, 2020, 4. Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi, “How America Can Shore Up Asian Order,” Foreign Affairs, online January 12, 2021. 5. Declassified US document “US Strategic Framework for the IndoPacific”, accessed via White House archive on January 25, 2021. 6. HR McMasters – “Biden Would do the World a Favor by Keeping Trump’s China Policy,” Washington Post Opinion, January 18, 2021. 7. Ignatius, David. “Not all Trump Policies should be Discarded.” The Washington Post, Jan 22, 2021. Act Two – “Taking Main Stage – Inauguration Eve: moves by both side” 1. John Hudson, “At the 11th hour, Trump administration declares China’s treatment of Muslims in Xinjiang ‘genocide’,” The Washington Post, January 19, 2021. 2. Josh Rogin, “China Throws Down the Gauntlet.” The Washington Post, Jan 22, 2021. 3. Ghosh, Nirmal. “US Set to Remain Tough on China, here to Stay in Asia: Biden Seeks to show that Presidential Transitions do Not Mean 180-Degree Policy Turns: Expert.” The Straits Times, Jan 23, 2021. 4. Wang, Xiangwei. “Small Steps by Xi and Biden could Lead to Big Changes in US-China Ties.” South China Morning Post Publishers Limited. Optional: – Josh Rogin, “Pottinger Exits, But His Influence Will Remain.” The Washington Post, January 8, 2021. – Podcast, Hudson Institute “A Conversation with former Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken”, July 9, 2020. – Mahbubani, Kishore. “Can Asia Help Biden?” The Straits Times, Jan 22, 2021. – Podcast, Humphrey, “The Future of US Foreign Policy, Interview with Jake Sullivan,” November 25, 2020. China portion around minute 18. – Gewirtz, Julian, “China Thinks America Is Losing: Washington Must Show Beijing It’s Wrong, “ Foreign Affairs, November/December 2020. WEEK 3 – Wednesday, February 10, 2021 THE HISTORY OF CHINA AND THE HISTORY OF THE U.S.-CHINA RELATIONSHIP Description: How does China’s history shape its foreign policy? What baggage does the U.S.-China relationship carry? Readings – Allison, Graham, “Chapter 1: The Biggest Player in the History of the World” and “Imagining a “Xi Corollary”– “Clash of Civilizations”, pg 104-153 inclusive, in Destined for War: Can America and China Escape the Thucydides Trap?, (Houghton, Mifflin, Harcourt, Boston & New York, 2017). – Kenneth Lieberthal and Wang Jisi, “An Overview of the U.S.-China Relationship” in Debating China, Nina Hachigian ed., (Oxford University Press, 2014). – Various, “Did America Get China Wrong?” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2018. https://www- – Elizabeth Economy, “China’s Neo-Maoist Moment : How Xi Jinping Is Using China’s Past to Accomplish What His Predecessors Could Not” Foreign Affairs online, October 1, 2019. – Elizabeth Economy, “History with Chinese Characteristics: How China’s Imagined Past Shapes Its Present,” Foreign Affairs online. June 2017. How Shapes Its Present . – Li, Cheng, “Hope and Doubts in Beijing: Resetting U.S.-Chinese Relations Won’t Be Easy,” Foreign Affairs online, November 13, 2020. – John Bellinger, Lawcraft on the Uighur Genocide determination (added) WEEK 4 – Wednesday, February 17, 2021 TOOLS OF STATECRAFT/ THE D-I IN DIME Description: What are the strengths of Diplomacy and Information? How do the U.S. and China use these instruments differently? What impact do those differences have on their ability to effectively project and wield power? Lesson One on Xinjiang and the Uighur human rights issue. Readings: – Allison, “Chapter 8: From Here to War” in Destined for War. – Dorfman, Zach, ““Investigation: Beijing Ransacked Data as U.S. Sources Went Dark in China: As Xi consolidated power, U.S. officials struggled to read China’s new ruler,” in Foreign Policy’s December 22, 2020, 6 AM. – Allen-Ebrahimian and Dorfman, Zach, “Republican Donor Cindy Yang Linked to Chinese Influence Machine,” Foreign Policy, March 12, 2019, 2:54 PM. – Wang Shuo and Susan Shirk, “The Media” in Debating China. – Anthony Cordesman, “Making America Great? Global Perceptions of China, Russia and the United States: The International Scorecard”, CSIS commentary, January 7, 2021. Brief due Tuesday February 23, in preparation for debate one on Feb 24 WEEK 5 – Wednesday, February 24, 2021 DEBATING PROPOSITIONS RELATED TO INSTRUMENTS OF STATECRAFT- XINJIANG We will tackle three propositions, each in a 25-minute debate followed by a hot wash. Students will be divided into teams of three-four. Your only assignment due February 24 is to prepare your briefing papers and come ready for the debate. WEEK 6 – Wednesday, March 3, 2021 PERSONALITY VS. STRATEGIC CULTURE Description: Both Xi Jinping and Joe Biden are individuals shaped by their personal histories and beliefs. How do we properly gauge the role of individuals, political systems, and strategic culture? How do the latter two constrain the first? Readings: – Andrew Scobell, “China and Strategic Culture,” Strategic Studies Institute, Army War College, May 2002. (available in Canvas, Module Six) Xia, Cai, “The Party that Failed: An Insider Breaks with Beijing,” Foreign Affairs, January/ February 2021, accessed January 11, 2021. – Re-read Elizabeth Economy, “China’s Neo-Maoist Moment : How Xi Jinping Is Using China’s Past to Accomplish What His Predecessors Could Not” Foreign Affairs online, October 1, 2019. (assigned in week 3) – Odd Arne Westad, “The Sources of Chinese Conduct: Are Washington and China Fighting a New Cold War?,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2019. A useful refresher on Joe Biden’s background: Optional – David Lampton, Follow the Leader, is a fantastic book which addresses these issues in depth. WEEK 8 – Wednesday, March 17, 2021 TOOLS OF STATECRAFT/ THE M-E IN DIME (RESCHEDULED) Description: What are the strengths of the Military and Economic instruments of power? How do the U.S. and China use them differently? What changes is the Biden administration proposing and how is this shaping China’s reaction? What impact do the different abilities and usages of the instruments have on China and the U.S.’s respective power? In addition to the readings, look at CSIS’s china-power-project website. Readings: – Yang, Yao, Chapter One “China’s Economic Growth in Retrospect ” in China 2049, eds. David Dollar, Yiping Huang, and Yang Yao, (Brookings Institution Press, June 9, 2020), – Barry Naughton and Yao Yang, “Ch 2: The Economic Relationship” in Debating China. – Allison, “Ch. 10: Where Do We Go From Here,” in Destined for War. – Denise Tsang. “Sanctions on China to Remain Even with Sino-US Tensions Set to Ease Under President Joe Biden: Hong Kong’s American Chamber of Commerce: Any US Review of Measures Will Take Time Even if Ties Improve, Head of Commerce Chamber Warns.” South China Morning Post, Jan 23, 2021. – Farrell and Newman, “Chained to Globalization: Why It’s Too Late to Decouple” Foreign Affairs, 2019. – Christopher Twomey and Xu Hui, “Ch 8: Military Developments” in Debating China. WEEK 9 – Wednesday, March 24, 2021 THE U.S. AND CHINA IN THE WORLD Description: We will take stock of the state-of-play. At roughly 65-days in, how has the Biden administration done against its stated “first 100 days” goals in foreign policy? How is this impacting the U.S. standing in the world? How is China responding? Does the administration have a credible IndoPacific strategy? Note: We’ll also use time in this class to discuss how the independent reading books impact your thinking about “the US and China in the World”. Reading: Nina Hachigian and Yuan Peng, “Global Roles and Responsibilities” in Debating China. – Wu Xinbo and Michael Green, “Regional Security Roles and Challenges” in Debating China. – (new) Jackson, Van. “America’s Indo-Pacific Folly: Adding New Commitments in Asia Will Only Invite Disaster” Foreign Affairs, March 12, 2021. accessed online. – Biden, Suga, Modi, Morrison, “Opinion: Our Four Nations Are Committed to a Free, Open, Secure and Prosperous Indo-Pacific”, The Washington Post, 3/13/2021. WaPo opinion – quad-nations-indo-pacific/ Optional: Brookings podcast: “What does the Quad Summit Signal…” 3/16/2021, accessed at: WEEK 10 – Wednesday, March 31, 2021 CHINA AND THE U.S. IN THE WORLD (revised): DEBATE #2 (aka Project 2) Description: This will be our second in-class debate. The Autumn 2020 taped debates organized by CSIS’s China Power Project as well as material from the Brooking Institution’s “Global China: Assessing China’s Growing Role in the World” project are useful background. (see info below) Materials/links: – CSIS China Power Project, “ -Brookings Global China Project: From a potential “responsible stakeholder” to a “strategic competitor,” the U.S. government’s assessment of China has changed dramatically in recent years. China has emerged as a truly global actor, impacting every region and every major issue area. To better address the implications for American policy and the multilateral order, Brookings scholars are undertaking a twoyear project—“Global China: Assessing China’s Growing Role in the World”—intended to furnish policymakers and the public with a new empirical baseline for understanding China’s regional and global ambitions…. The project will assess the trajectory of China’s influence in Asia and other regions, as well as its growing influence on key issue domains and institutions. Areas of focus include the trajectory of China’s foreign policy; strategic competition and great power rivalry; East Asian security; China’s influence in key regions from Europe to Southeast Asia; and China’s impact on global governance and norms.) WEEK 11 – Wednesday, April 7, 2021 COOPERATION AND COMPETITION, CONTINUED? Description: The Biden Administration has foreshadowed a policy of competition AND cooperation with China, including in its recently released interim strategic guidance. In this class, we will analyze which mode is more likely (and why) on the hot button issue of North Korea and the complex challenges of Afghanistan and Iran. Readings: – Cha, Victor, “CSIS Global Forecast 2021: Preventing a Crisis with North Korea” December 17, 2020. CSIS Commentary. – Chung, Sung-youb, “The North Korea Policy of the Biden Administration and the US-North Korea Relations,” Korea Institute for National Unification online series, January 2021, accessed in English. – Sun, Yun “China’s Strategic Assessment of Afghanistan,” War on the R …
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